Power Shortage Nightmare: Lifeline of High-Tech Industry in Taipower Chairman's Hands
China Times Editorial, August 15, 2024
During the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen from 2016 to 2024, the energy transition plan focused not only on reducing carbon emissions with "increasing natural gas" and "reducing coal," but also emphasized the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) commitment to a "nuclear-free" policy and the expansion of green energy to enhance energy independence. The energy mix for 2025 was set in 2016 to be 50 percent natural gas, 30 percent coal, and 20 percent renewable energy. Eight years later, while the nuclear-free goal has been achieved, progress on the other three fronts has lagged behind. The Ministry of Economic Affairs (MOEA) had already revised the 2025 target for renewable energy generation down to 15.2 percent as early as January of 2024. The failure of this transition has come at the cost of stable power supply, leading to the ongoing nightmare of power shortages.
According to the latest data from the Energy Administration, MOEA, in the first half of this year, the share of power generation from various energy sources in Taiwan was 39.6 percent coal, 41.1 percent natural gas, 1.4 percent oil, 10.6 percent renewable energy, 6.2 percent nuclear power, and 1.1 percent pumped-storage hydroelectricity. Compared to the same period last year, coal usage decreased by 2.8 percent, natural gas slightly increased by 1.5 percent, and renewable energy increased by 1.8 percent. Based on the current development progress, it is unlikely that the original targets for natural gas and renewable energy will be met by next year. With nuclear power being legally required to be decommissioned, the strong demand for electricity will likely prevent any reduction in coal power generation, leading to an inevitable increase in carbon emissions rather than a decrease.
After Tsai stepped down, the responsibility for whether the energy transition succeeds will no longer be hers. Issues such as power shortages, poor supply quality, and ineffective carbon reduction will ultimately fall on her successor. President Lai Ching-te is well aware of the consequences of the previous administration's failure to implement its energy policies. This is why, during the first meeting of the "National Climate Change Response Committee" (NCCRC), that he led, he issued directives that "power supply must be sufficient, the system must be secure, and carbon reduction must be accelerated." President clearly does not want to inherit the problems of insufficient power supply and frequent blackouts from the previous administration.
Chairman Tseng Wen-sheng of the Taiwan Power Company (Taipower) quickly grasped the higher-ups' intentions. The NCCRC had just concluded its meeting on August 8, and on the next day, during an interview, Tseng stated that due to the severe power shortage in northern Taiwan, Taipower would not approve power supply for any artificial intelligence (AI) data processing centers in the region north of Taoyuan if their power consumption exceeds 5,000 kW (5 MW). He also encouraged the technology industry to invest in setting up plants in counties that support power development. Not only did he openly acknowledge the power shortage in the north, but he also bypassed high-level officials in the Executive Yuan and directly "advised" the tech industry on where to invest.
When did the Taipower Chairman become so influential that he could not only contradict the Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Chih-hui, who insists that Taiwan currently does not have a power shortage, but also decide the future development regions for the AI industry? Tseng's advocacy for differential regional power supply indirectly implies that the north only wants to consume electricity without generating it. He also subtly encourages emerging industries to invest in the south, highlighting his intention to "wage a power war between the north and the south."
The controversy surrounding differentiated power supply lies in the fact that the MOEA insisted there was no power shortage, yet the northern region quickly plunged into a severe power supply crisis. Even though Taipower further explained that Taiwan“as a whole”does not lack electricity, it's just that the "south-to-north power transmission" has reached its limit. However, the need for the northern region to rely on support from central and southern Taiwan is not a new situation. The over NT$500 billion (about US$16 billion) spent on the power grid resilience enhancement plan has been implemented for several years, yet no visible results have been seen. Taipower's argument that“regional power shortages do not equate to a national power shortage”is clearly a flimsy excuse.
The fact that the northern region has become a severely affected area for power shortages is undoubtedly linked to the non-nuclear policy. The No. 1 and No. 2 nuclear power plants, along with the Fourth Nuclear Power Plant, are all located in the northern region, with a total installed capacity of 5.942 million kilowatts. This is far greater than the 4.7 million kilowatts of power shortage in the north and east power grid previously mentioned by Minister Kuo. If not for the ruling party's insistence on a non-nuclear policy, the northern region could have long been self-sufficient in electricity through the extension and continued construction of existing power plants, and could have even sent electricity southward to help alleviate the air pollution caused by thermal power in central and southern Taiwan.
In fact, President Lai clearly mentioned at the NCCRC meeting that energy issues are not a simple "right or wrong" question of opposing or supporting nuclear power, but rather a diverse "choice question," and even a complex "multiple-choice question." However, after the meeting, it was emphasized that any choice must comply with legal regulations, indirectly excluding nuclear power as one of the options, which is quite unfortunate. Premier Cho Jung-tai has publicly stated that existing nuclear power plants legally cannot be restarted or have their lifespans extended. Additionally, due to the pressure from the non-nuclear policy, it is evident that the ruling party will not actively amend the law to continue using nuclear power. What is surprising is that Premier Cho instead suggested that the opposition parties, which plan to amend the law to restart nuclear power, should engage in discussions with the general public. Does Premier Cho not realize that multiple recent polls have shown that over half of the public supports the continued use of nuclear power? From his indifferent attitude, it is clear that even if the opposition parties succeed in passing the law, the Executive Yuan may not necessarily implement the restart of nuclear power.
Tsai can walk away, leaving behind an endless power shortage crisis. Yet, if President Lai doesn't take decisive action, the power shortage in the north could soon become a nationwide issue. For the high-tech industry, it won't just be a matter of shifting power operations from the south to the north but rather a concern about the survival of Taiwan's high-tech industry. Does the Lai administration have a sure remedy to take this risk?
From: https://www.chinatimes.com/opinion/20240815004986-262101?chdtv